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Short-term estimate

Bullish signal since Nov 28. Several of our indicators turned and we now moved into bullish territory. The recent market correction has also brought valuations on small and mid caps to attractive levels.

 
Mid-term estimate

Lower interest rates and increasing inflation are good for equities and commodities, and not so good for bonds. The valuation scenario is most attractive for equities as commodities are at historically high levels. We think that particularly equities in emerging markets and N11 countries will do well.

Our market model is based on various macroeconomic indicators like interest rates, exchange rates,
oil price or liquidity. Also, valuation multiples and trends of various global stock market indices are
taken into consideration. For our investment decisions, we focus on the short-term outlook. The
mid-term outllook helps us to be aware of potential upcoming changes.

S&P 500 Index Chart
 

The chart shows our short-term market signals together with the performance of the S&P 500 index. Green rectangles indicate short-term bullish signals, the rest are bearish ones. The model is operational since 2005. The history since 1977 is based on simulation.


 


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Disclaimer: None of the information contained in the Site constitutes a recommendation by PearlFisher Investments that anyparticular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. See the Securities Disclaimer section of the Terms of Use for more information. more on Our Terms of use

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Buy gold explorers

We buy 3 gold explorers: * International Royalty company (ROY), which is a portfolio company that owns shares in various mines. * Altius Minerals (ALS.TO): This company already has steady income from roylties and is about cash break even. It has further interests in uranium and copper mines. * Almaden Minerals (AMM.TO or AAU): This is more early stage and higher risk than the other two companies. On the other hand, there is a good chance for strong newsflow over the next couple of months.

Date: 13-07-07

We sell our long warrants and the straddle

We sell the Dax call, the MDAX Call and the Nasdaq straddle (consisting of a long and a short instrument). The reason is that overall, the warning signs for the stock markets become more and more obvious: Increasing interest rates, a weak USD, high oil prices and fears of increasing inflation. As a latest trigger, we see that the volatility in the stock markets increases significantly which has happened often berfore bear markets. The latest rally might continue over the next days or weeks. But as the warrants are highly leveraged and pretty risky and we have achieved our targets, we realize the gains.

Date: 15-06-07

Buy Amazon

Amazon has all the incredients to become the next Walmart. PE looks high as the company invests in growth. On the other hand, price / sales of 2.5 looks reasonable when looking at the > 30% revenue growth rate.

Date: 23-05-07

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