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CURRENT HOLDINGS
Portfolio Recovery Associates   PRAA   23-Mar-06       100%   44.60   48.98   US$   10%   14%

 

Gold ETF   GLD   5/ Apr/ 07       100%   66.7   70.08   US$   5%   3%

 

Silver ETF   SLV   5/ Apr/ 07       100%   135.9   124.7   US$   -8%   3%

 

Oil ETF   BHZ7   5/ Apr/ 07       100%   70.2   76.89   US$   10%   3%

 

Amazon   AMZN   22/ May/ 07       100%   67.3   87.26   US$   30%   -3%

 

Natural Cool Holdings   N7E   22/ May/ 07       100%   0.168   0.17   EUR   0%   -3%

 

Almaden Minerals   AMM   13/ Jul/ 07       50%   2.85   2.26   CN$   -10%   -4%

 

Altius Minerals   ALS   13/ Jul/ 07       50%   21.3   20.39   CN$   -2%   -4%

 

Int'l Royalty Corp   ROY   13/ Jul/ 07       50%   7.2   6.80   US$   -3%   -4%

 

Agriculture   GS8T6W   1/ Aug/ 07       100%   65   65.85   Eur   1%   1%

 

UltraShort Nasdaq   QID   6/ Aug/ 07       100%   45.34   43.09   US$   -5%   1%

 

UltraShort Industrials   SIJ   16/ Aug/ 07       100%   64.8   57.06   US$   -12%   5%

 

Short warrant on Caterpillar   DB33C0   17/ Aug/ 07       100%   0.59   0.61   Eur   3%   3%

 

POSITIONS SOLD
Tom Online   TOMO   15-Mar-06   5/ Jun/ 06   100%   21.90   20.80   US$   -5%   -3%

 

Silver Future (Commodity)   SIZ7   1-Jan-06   19/ Dec/ 06   100%   9.39   12.65   US$   35%   14%

 

Cnooc   CEO   15-Mar-06   12/ Jan/ 07   100%   80.90   131.12   US$   62%   10%

 

Conoco Phillips   COP   21-Jun-06   11/ Jan/ 07   100%   59.80   85.11   US$   42%   14%

 

US Steel   X   1-Jan-06   3/ Jan/ 07   100%   48.50   90.29   US$   86%   13%

 

Action Semicond.   ACTS   15-Mar-06   29/ Jan/ 07   100%   7.65   4.85   US$   -37%   9%

 

DAX Long call option   DB967J *   Nov 03 06   1/ Mar/ 07   100%   4.16   11.14   EUR   168%   3%

 

Vanguard emerging markets ETF   VWO   Nov 22 06   1/ Mar/ 07   100%   73.80   95.78   US$   30%   0%

 

Ctrip.com   CTRP   15-Mar-06   15/ Feb/ 07   100%   39.90   45.13   US$   13%   12%

 

China Life   LFC   12-Jan-06   16/ Feb/ 07   100%   46.25   43.52   US$   -6%   2%

 

Arques Industries   515600 *   15-Mar-06   1/ Mar/ 07   100%   10.60   31.58   EUR   198%   8%

 

Ashland Inc   ASH   1-Jan-06   14/ Mar/ 07   100%   58.40   59.44   US$   2%   10%

 

China Mobile   CHL   12-Jan-06   14/ Mar/ 07   100%   42.32   47.72   US$   13%   -3%

 

China Index ETF   FXI   1-Jan-06   14/ Mar/ 07   100%   62.40   153.68   US$   146%   10%

 

AMD Long PUT Option   CG34ZA   13-Mar-07   15-Jun-07   100%   0.97   1.09   EUR   12%   8%

 

Nasdaq Long Call option   DB501K   29-Jan-07   15-Jun-07   67%   1.62   2.38   EUR   31%   4%

 

Nasdaq Long Put option   DB502K   29-Jan-07   15-Jun-07   33%   0.85   0.39   EUR   -18%   4%

 

MDAX warrant   TB0LYY   3/ Apr/ 07   15-Jun-07   100%   27.1   23.31   EUR   -14%   3%

 

DAX warrant   TB0SYL   22/ May/ 07   15-Jun-07   100%   2.8   1.57   EUR   -44%   -3%

 

Apple   AAPL   5/ Apr/ 07   17-Aug-07   100%   93.52   137.20   US$   47%   3%

 

Atos Origin   ATO   26-Mar-07   13-Aug-07   100%   49.60   39.38   EUR   -21%   3%

 

Arques Industries   AQU   3/ Apr/ 07   17-Aug-07   100%   19.05   31.58   EUR   66%   3%

 

Average return: 24% 4%

 


* German ticker (WKN)
Last Update: 14-Sep-07

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Three more changes to our pick list

We suggest 3 more changes to our pick list based on our expectation of a recession: * We sell Apple. We take our profits as retailers could suffer in a recession scenario * We sell Arques as weakening economic indicators are expected to have a downside impact on financial markets. This will result in a much higher hurdle for Arques to execute exits out of its portfolio * We buy a short warrant on Caterpillar: DB33C0. We expect the company to suffer both from a recession and specifically the downturn in the housing sector.

Date: 17-08-07

Buy short ETF on industrials: SIJ

We buy a short on SIJ. This is a SHORT ETF on industrials that has a 200% leverage on the industrial sector. We expect the industrials to suffer significantly in the expected recession.

Date: 16-08-07

Sell Atos

We sell our holding in Atos. The expected acquisition did not happen. Also, we clean up our long holdings based on our bearish Pearl Fisher market model

Date: 13-08-07

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